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Backtesting vs Overfitting: How to Tell a Real Model From a Curve-Fitted One

Any model can be made to look brilliant on historical data. Here are the questions that separate genuine predictive work from an expensive coincidence.

Yankees F5 Draw No Bet vs Blue Jays — Free MLB Analysis

MLB · Free Analysis Yankees F5 Draw No Bet vs Toronto Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees · Soriano vs Rodón Analysed by OPTIMUS II The pick MLB · First 5 · Draw No Bet Yankees F5 Draw No Bet @ 1.751 1.00Unit 1.751Odds 58.3%Decided prob. +1.7%Model EV The strongest read from the supplied […]

Twins @ Padres: How We Read the Moneyline

MLB · Match Analysis How we read it: Padres moneyline vs Minnesota Minnesota Twins @ San Diego Padres · Kremer vs Mize Analysed by OPTIMUS II The read MLB · Moneyline San Diego Padres to win @ 1.751 1.00Unit 1.751Odds 59.1%Model prob. +3.5%Model EV Note: this analysis is published for the archive after the game. […]

Cardinals @ Phillies: How We Read the F5 Under (5.0)

MLB · Match Analysis How we read it: Cardinals @ Phillies F5 under 5.0 St. Louis Cardinals @ Philadelphia Phillies · Dobbins vs Luzardo Analysed by OPTIMUS II The read MLB · First 5 innings First 5 Innings – Under 5.0 Runs @ 1.649 1.00Unit 1.649Odds 57.8%Win prob. +10.7%Model EV Note: this analysis is published […]

Kelly Criterion vs Flat Staking: How Much Should You Actually Bet?

Picking winners is only half the problem. Stake sizing determines whether an edge compounds into profit or gets wiped out by a normal losing run.

Sample Size and Variance: How Many Bets Before You Know a Model Works

A month of results tells you almost nothing. Here is the actual arithmetic on how long it takes to distinguish skill from luck — and why the answer is uncomfortable.