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The main argument for backing the Mets is tonight’s starting-pitcher matchup. Since returning, Christian Scott has shown increased fastball velocity, with his four-seamer averaging 95.4 mph. Combined with a cutter that has held opponents to a .167 slugging percentage and a sweeper generating a 34.9% whiff rate, Scott has the arsenal to limit the most dangerous part of the Phillies lineup.
Scott has recorded 65 strikeouts across 54 innings while posting a 3.17 ERA. On the other side, Aaron Nola has allowed 20 home runs in 97 innings and enters with a 5.75 ERA and 4.67 FIP. The Mets do not need to be the better team over the entire season to keep this particular game close.
The +1.5 run line also protects us in the event of a one-run defeat — especially valuable in a divisional matchup where Scott’s swing-and-miss profile should keep New York competitive through at least the first half of the game.
Scott’s improved fastball velocity and effective secondary pitches should help him limit hard contact against Philadelphia. The Mets need to create early pressure against Nola and hand the game to their bullpen while trailing by no more than one run. The +1.5 handicap provides protection for precisely that close-game scenario.
Scott is working with a more limited workload following surgery and often exits around the fifth inning because of an elevated pitch count. New York’s inconsistent offense — and the subsequent exposure of its bullpen — represent the clearest paths to this position failing.
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