Why the first five innings

Seattle are averaging only 3.87 runs per game (.229/.308/.375). Houston own the stronger offense, but this selection focuses purely on the first five innings — limiting exposure to both teams’ recently used bullpens and concentrating on the starters.

Hancock led on the surface; Wesneski’s 3.86 ERA comes from just 18⅔ innings, so the model discounts it rather than taking it at face value.

The projection

OPTIMUS II projected an early script of roughly 2.25–2.31, about 4.56 combined runs through five. The selection wins with five or fewer through the end of the fifth; six or more loses.

≈ 4.56 combined vs a 5.5 line — a full run and a half of margin on the projection.

Key statistics

• Seattle averaging just 3.87 runs per game (.229/.308/.375).
• Hancock (SEA): 3.35 ERA, 1.12 WHIP across 121 innings.
• Wesneski (HOU): 3.86 ERA, 1.18 WHIP — but only 18⅔ innings in 2026, so the model treats it conservatively.
• First-five projection: Seattle 2.25, Houston 2.31 — about 4.56 combined.
• Model: 68.2% win (59.9% conservative); standard value price 1.702 vs an available 1.667.

Risks